Stemming from previous research efforts with the National Park Service and Environmental Protection Agency, E&S has extended investigations into the effects of expected future increases in air temperature on more than 1,000 understory plant species characteristic of vegetation communities within National Parks. Statistical models for each of the species were established in previous work conducted by E&S and were utilized in this project to model the effects anticipated climate change and quantify risk associated with chronic exposure to air pollution (i.e., atmospheric nitrogen deposition). Vegetation communities within 168 National Park Management Units, including the Appalachian National Scenic Trail, Arches NP, Zion NP, and Redwood NP were included in the study.
Preliminary results indicated that parks with the highest numbers of characteristic species expected to undergo more than a 95% decrease in occurrence probability under the +1.5 °C warming scenario were located in the southern and southeastern US. Species in parks located in the western and southwestern United States were generally the most sensitive to nitrogen (N) deposition with critical loads less than 5 kg N/ha/yr. Results from this work are planned for publication in the peer-reviewed literature.
