New Publication Describes Models to Predict Fish Assemblages Based on Stream Chemistry

A scientific journal article written by E&S staff and colleagues at the U.S. Geological Survey and Syracuse University has recently been accepted for publication by the Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. The paper, “Probabilistic relations between acid-base chemistry and fish assemblages in streams of the western Adirondack Mountains, New York, USA” (Baldigo et al.) explored relationships between stream chemistry and fish response metrics. Quantitative fish and water chemistry surveys were completed by USGS in 47 headwater streams during summer 2014-16 to develop logistic (probabilistic) models that characterize the status of contemporary fish assemblages and predict how different nitrogen and sulfur deposition loads may affect future fish assemblages. Models for inorganic aluminum and fish richness, and for acid neutralizing capacity and total density, total biomass, Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) density, and Brook Trout biomass were suitable for evaluating community and population responses to changes in stream acid-base chemistry. Anticipated changes in national (U.S.) secondary standards for atmospheric emissions of oxides of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) to achieve target N and S deposition loads will alter acid-base chemistry and the probabilities for observing various levels of fish metrics in streams across the region and elsewhere.