Tree Species Growth and Survival Response to Climate Change and Air Pollution: Model Development

E&S recently developed a white paper documenting an exploratory analysis of drivers of tree growth and survival responses to climate-related variables and aspects of air pollution, among other drivers, with colleagues at EPA and partner Universities. The study utilized US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data for more than 1,000,000 individual trees; with particular emphasis given to ten species, including quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides), red spruce (Picea rubens), ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla), sugar maple (Acer saccharum), paper birch (Betula papyrifera), yellow poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera), eastern cottonwood (Populus deltoides), and black cherry (Prunus serotina). The approach featured hierarchical Bayesian methodologies for incorporating uncertainty and also considered the impacts of acute forest disturbances, such as those stemming from fire or disease.